美债反弹可持续吗？今晚又有一场招商考验

d has raised interest rates and will switch to cutting interest rates by the middle of next year． At the same time， the increase in bid scale previously announced by the US Treasury Department was less than expected by many bond traders， especially long-term bond bids， which allayed some market supply concerns．

Driven by this strong purchasing power， US debt ended a six-month decline and pushed the 10-year US bond market to rise 2.6% in November． This was the biggest increase since March， when people feared the banking crisis would drag down the economy．

However， this month‘s frenzied rise in US debt prices is about to begin$U.S． 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield（US10Y.BD）$It was pushed to the lowest level since September， making demand for the US Treasury’s 20-year treasury bond bidding this week an important indicator for investors to determine whether there is a risk of a reversal in recent trends．

Over the past year， the confidence of bond market traders has been hit by an unexpectedly strong economy and stubborn inflation． The growing federal deficit is another reason， testing the market‘s ability to absorb all new debt．

For most of the past three years， the US Treasury‘s bid on 20-year Treasury bonds has been a market burden since demand for 10-year and 30-year treasury bonds was far worse than that of 10-year and 30-year treasury bonds． At the same time， 20-year Treasury bonds were never sold during the US Thanksgiving week when the holiday was shortened during this period． Whether tonight’s bidding will be a success has attracted particular attention．

Concerns about whether the market will be able to accept the sale of large amounts of US bonds were evident in the 30-year bond auction earlier this month： at the time， the Treasury had to offer an unusually high yield premium to sell bonds， causing the market to plummet for a short time．

According to media quoting William Marshall， head of US interest rate strategy at BNP Paribas， “This important US bond bid can be described as a ‘intellectual check’ for investors， that is， whether the evolution of data has moved in a meaningful way to a more stable and more constructive approach to absorb long-term supply．”

Marshall stated：

“Although 20-year treasury bonds he been affected by weak demand for a long time， and the yield has always been higher than that of 30-year treasury bonds， since the US Treasury earlier reduced the bidding scale of 20-year treasury bonds compared to 10-year and 30-year treasury bonds， the performance of 20-year treasury bonds in bidding sales has always been good． The bid on Tuesday was $16 billion， while the bid for 30-year treasury bonds was $24 billion earlier this month．”

editor/tolk

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